A review of “Keynes and the Keynesian Revolution” (audiobook)

“But this long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task, if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us, that when the storm is long past, the ocean is flat again.”

– John Maynard Keynes, in “A Tract on Monetary Reform” (1923), Chapter 3

I recently listened to an audiobook about the British economist John Maynard Keynes, who lived from 1883 to 1946. It was a good audiobook, which spoke of both his academic career and his political career. For example, he did some important diplomacy for the British government, and was responsible for some of the economic provisions of the Treaty of Versailles (the treaty that ended World War One). He also helped to secure some loans from the American government, which helped to improve his country's postwar economy somewhat – despite the interest rates which we imposed on this loan.

A review of “Struggle over the Keynesian Heritage” (audiobook)

So I recently listened to an audiobook called “Struggle over the Keynesian Heritage.” It was the sequel to an earlier audiobook called “Keynes and the Keynesian Revolution,” which covered the life and ideas of John Maynard Keynes, the great British economist. Whether one agrees or disagrees with him, Keynes was the most influential economist of the twentieth century. “Struggle over the Keynesian Heritage” is about the debate over Keynes’ ideas and legacy, among groups that call themselves “Keynesians.”

Yes, Woodrow Wilson predicted World War II – but so did J. M. Keynes

Woodrow Wilson accurately predicted a Second World War ...

In the years after the First World War, American president Woodrow Wilson predicted that if America refused to join the League of Nations, there would be a Second World War.

Woodrow Wilson

... but does that mean it happened for the reasons he said it would happen?

America did indeed refuse to join the League of Nations; and there was later a Second World War. Thus, it might seem at first glance that he was a prophet, or that World War II really was the result of not joining the League.

John Maynard Keynes predicted a Second World War, too, but for somewhat different reasons

But this is a problematic claim for several reasons. Others, too, predicted World War II; and their causality claims were somewhat different. John Maynard Keynes, for example, predicted that World War II would happen if the Allies pursued reparations from the Germans. He had much criticism of the League of Nations advocated by Woodrow Wilson. Even if accurately predicting the war comes from a genuine prophecy (rather than a lucky guess), that doesn't mean that the predictor's reason for why it happened is the true reason - causality is a little more complicated than that.

He never said that it would be because of the American refusal to join the League of Nations

I'll leave the discussion of causality to another post; and instead focus here on John Maynard Keynes' predictions. If accurately predicting an event means that someone is right about why it happened, then John Maynard Keynes' predictions would prove Woodrow Wilson is wrong, and I will give the quotes to prove it now.

John Maynard Keynes